​Push Forward 在危机时期要前进而不是退缩

Push Forward 在危机时期要前进而不是退缩

Push Forward Instead of Pulling Back During Times of Crises 在危机时期要前进而不是退缩

April 6, 2020April 6, 2020 by Guest Author 翻译by虞老师

By Gregory Cable, C.P.M.

When considering the importance of putting focus on the supply chain during a downturn, I am reminded of a time about 25 years ago when I took lessons to get my private pilot’s license. One of the most important maneuvers taught to students is how to quickly recover from a stall — not an engine stall, but rather a condition in which one or both wings fail to produce lift. When there is no lift, the plane basically falls from the sky.

当考虑到在经济低迷时期关注供应链的重要性时，我想起了大约25年前的一次，当时我为了拿到私人飞行员执照而学习。教给学生的最重要的动作之一是如何从失速中快速恢复——不是发动机失速，而是一个机翼或两个机翼无法产生升力的情况。当没有升力时，飞机基本上会从天上掉下来。

Stalls generally occur when a plane is low and slow, such as during takeoff or landing. It sounds dire, but it’s easy to recover from a stall. I remember the first time my flight instructor purposely had me stall the airplane at about 3,500 feet above the ground — although it was a safe distance for practicing such a maneuver, I was apprehensive. As we pretended to be landing, the plane got slower and slower, until finally the stall warning alarm sounded, and then whoosh — over we went, nose down. It was a gut-wrenching feeling.

失速通常发生在飞机低空慢速飞行时，例如在起飞或着陆时。听起来很可怕，但从失速恢复起来很容易。我记得第一次我的飞行教练故意让我把飞机停在离地面3500英尺的地方——虽然这是练习这种动作的安全距离，但我很担心。当我们假装要着陆时，飞机越来越慢，直到最后失速警报响起，然后我们飞过，鼻子朝下。这是一种令人恐惧的感觉。

What is the typical untrained reaction to having the nose of the plane suddenly tip forward, hurling you toward the earth? To pull back. Yet, that’s precisely the wrong thing to do. The key to survival in a stall is not to pull back, but rather push the yoke forward, thus gaining airspeed and lift, and only then applying gentle back pressure on the yoke to level off.

当飞机的机头突然前倾，把你抛向地球时，典型的未经训练的反应是什么？后退。然而，这恰恰是错误的做法。在失速中生存的关键不是向后拉，而是向前推动轭架，从而获得空速和升力，然后才对轭架施加温和的背压使其水平。

After several dozen tries at stall recovery, I not only overcame my dread of it, it became so routine that recovery became easy and second nature. The biggest challenge through it all was, through training, overcoming what my mind was instinctively telling me to do — that is, pull the yoke back too soon.

经过几十次的尝试，我不仅克服了对它的恐惧，它变得如此常规，恢复变得容易甚至成了第二天性。这一切最大的挑战是，通过训练，克服我的大脑本能地告诉我要做的事情——也就是说，过早地把枷锁拉回来。

As companies hunker down to survive the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, many do what comes naturally in times of crises or economic stalls — they reactively pull back, thinking that this is best in order to keep the business aloft. Pulling back comes in many forms, from such easy solutions as cutting travel and training expenses to more difficult decisions involving layoffs or shutting down parts of the business.

当企业在冠状病毒（COVID-19）的肆虐中挣扎求生时，许多企业会在危机或经济停滞时自然而然地做些事情——他们会做出反应，认为这样做最好是为了让企业保持在高位。撤退有多种形式，从削减旅行和培训费用等简单的解决方案，到涉及裁员或关闭部分业务的更困难的决定。

Business leaders all over the world are pulling back by making cuts across their companies. Supply chain departments are some of the first to be reduced, since, as many unknowledgeable business leaders believe, they “only order parts.” The logic is that since the business no longer needs as many parts, it doesn’t require as many supply management employees.

全世界的商业领袖们都在通过削减公司开支来减少开支。供应链部门是最早被削减的部门之一，因为正如许多不知名的企业领导人所认为的那样，他们“只订购零部件”。逻辑是，既然企业不再需要那么多零部件，就不需要那么多供应管理员工。

The result of pulling back on the supply chain — like pulling back on the yoke during a stall — is a recipe for disaster. One may survive the crash, but it will be ugly. Nor will the company be in a good position to compete effectively after the crash.

在供应链上后退的结果——就像在失速上后退一样——是一个灾难的处方。一个人也许能在车祸中幸存下来，但那会很难看。这家公司在金融危机后也不会处于有效竞争的有利地位。

Enlightened leaders know that during crisis there are opportunities. The COVID-19 crisis is no exception. There are numerous opportunities to take advantage of while your competitors are making knee-jerk decisions to downsize their supply management organizations.

开明的领导人知道在危机中有机会。COVID-19危机也不例外。当你的竞争对手下意识地决定缩减他们的供应管理组织时，有很多机会可以利用。

Three important actions must be taken immediately:

三项必须立即采取的重要行动是：

Assess your risk. How many companies have sent employees home with nothing to do and are still paying them? Why not put them to work with a list of questions to ask suppliers? Questions include:

评估风险。有多少公司已经把员工送回家，而他们却无所事事，而且还在付钱给他们？为什么不让他们列出一系列问题来询问供应商呢？问题包括：

•How has the virus impacted each supplier?

病毒是如何影响每个供应商的？

•Have suppliers altered vital production lines that make your parts in order to make medical devices?

供应商是否为了制造医疗器械而改变了制造你们零件的重要生产线？

•Have they had layoffs, and if so, how quickly can they recall those employees?

他们有没有裁员，如果有，他们能多快召回这些员工？

•Do they have any of your parts ready to ship (or nearly so)?

你们的零件准备好装运了吗？

•Do they have enough component parts and raw materials on-hand to quickly ramp up when the pandemic subsides?

他们手头是否有足够的零部件和原材料，以便在大流行消退时迅速增长？

•Do they know your quality and delivery expectations?

他们知道你的质量和交货期望吗？

•What about each supplier’s other customers — will they be competing for the same capacity when production starts up? Who will get priority?

那么，每个供应商的其他客户呢？当生产开始时，他们会为相同的产能而竞争吗？谁将获得优先权？

Questions like these and many others should be asked so that you can be prepared for when the economy bounces back. It’s important to realize that past problems regarding parts and suppliers may not be the same potential problems a few months from now. There’s no excuse for being surprised when production ramps up, especially from typically reliable suppliers.

像这样的问题和其他许多问题应该被问到，这样你就可以为经济复苏做好准备。当生产增加时，尤其是来自通常可靠的供应商时，没有理由感到惊讶。

Evaluate supplier deliveries that can be pushed out and those that should be kept as scheduled. Cuts to the sales forecast can often result in dramatic recommended push outs of orders by material requirements planning (MRP). Because supply management organizations are under tremendous pressure to keep unneeded parts out of the factory to avoid an inventory increase, their reaction is to immediately pull back on the yoke.

评估可推进的供应商交货和应按计划进行的交货。对销售预测的削减通常会导致按物料需求计划（MRP）大幅推荐的订单推送。由于供应管理组织承受着巨大的压力，为了避免库存增加，将不需要的零件留在工厂外，他们的反应是立即收回枷锁。

Often, there is a significant effort spent pushing out orders, only for employees to later expend an equal or greater amount of time trying to pull those orders back in when business improves. The result can be hundreds of hours of wasted effort and opportunity cost on missed value-added activities.

通常，在下订单时会花费大量的精力，只是员工以后会花费相同或更多的时间，试图在业务改善时收回订单。其结果可能是在错过的增值活动上浪费数百小时的精力和机会成本。

Corner-office leadership is critical. “Business as normal” dictates that supply management push out orders if not needed, and unless directed otherwise, that’s what they will do. Leadership needs to make clear that the company executes only smart push outs, or at a minimum, allows the supply management organization to make push-out exceptions within certain guidelines. Inventory goals should be suspended until the crisis is over.

高层领导至关重要。“正常经营”规定，如果不需要的话，供应管理部门会下订单，除非另有指示，否则他们会这样做。领导层需要明确，公司只执行智能推送，或者至少允许供应管理组织在某些指导原则范围内做出推送例外。库存目标应该暂停，直到危机结束。

Assist suppliers where practical. If your risk assessment identifies a supplier in need, ask that the information be escalated to a company executive that can reach out and potentially provide assistance.

在可行的情况下协助供应商。如果您的风险评估发现有需要的供应商，请要求将信息上报给能够主动联系并可能提供帮助的公司高管。

Financial assistance might not possible, but many other kinds of non-monetary assistance can be provided. If the supplier is in a hard-hit area, sending disinfecting supplies —even toilet paper — might be a simple and inexpensive way to help. At a minimum, just the act of reaching out will leave a lasting impression on the supplier. Goodwill goes a long way, and your act of kindness will not be forgotten.

提供财政援助可能不可能，但可以提供许多其他类型的非货币援助。如果供应商身处重灾区，发送消毒用品——甚至是卫生纸——可能是一种简单而廉价的帮助方式。至少，仅仅是伸出援手的行为会给供应商留下持久的印象。善意是一条很长的路，你的善举不会被忘记。

Gregory Cable, C.P.M., is a supply management senior consultant and principal with CGHM Consulting in Fairhope, Alabama.

Gregory Cable，C.P.M.是位于阿拉巴马州费尔霍普的CGHM咨询公司的供应管理高级顾问和负责人。